Fantasy Trade Value Chart
There’s still time to talk about Dynasty Fantasy Football. I have updated trade value charts for SuperFlex and 1-QB formats. There were many requests for 1-QB, so I finally made it! I put both formats in the same Excel download. Change tabs to find the form you need.
Not a ton from last month. Things were pretty static, which is not a bad thing. Watch preseason football matches and send trade requests! The Athletic Dynasty Trade Value Chart (August Download)
In the Athletic, we created a special edition Dynasty Trade Value Table. We generated our values based on the experts here and compared those values to the open market (ECR) version of the chart. Use the ECR (+/-) column to find out which players the experts
Here want to buy or sell and help identify critical market flaws! Can give priority to, For example, Malik Willis’ trade value remains calculated to be 34 (on the SuperFlex chart), which is 21 points higher than consensus! Is. Use this chart to look for buys and sells and make some offers.
A tool to make your life easier. The leftmost column is the transaction value assigned to the row. All consecutive players and picks are of equal value and can theoretically remain exchanged for each other. Players remain divided into columns by position. ECR columns are calculated based on Reddit-adjusted columns published on Patreon, Twitter, and Reddit. A plus (+) means that the transaction amount is above his ECR, a minus (-), and vice versa.
When looking at deals larger than
(e.g. 2 for 2 or 3 for 3), Sum the aspects of each deal to determine fairness. For example, consider the depth of integration and try to overpay to attract stud players. These are guidelines for looking for good deals.
The backbone of my model remains seeded by expert consensus ranks drawn from as many public sources as possible. The goal is to average as many markets as possible in one analysis. Feed the ranks to the database (clean up the names) and calculate the average position before running it in the model
It then assigns rank-based trade values based on historical importance as a function of position rarity. In all my models, the running back is the backbone, and the WR, TE, and QB values remain determined as a function of the nearby RB values. Dynasty rookie picks are more complicated. So, manually go through crowdsourced data (Twitter polls, KTC, etc.)
Create high and low ranges for groups of choices (early, mid, late). Following the NFL Draft, adding this year’s rookie picks to the chart just got easier. Finally, gauge your standings by comparing your picks to other players.
The 2023 pick is higher than the usual n+1 rookie pick due to insane hype. The 2024 picks are about where I expect the n+2 picks to be. They lose their value because they are not relevant for two years. I like to score points and win this year.
There were many discussions about the draft value and whether to drop from 2nd overall or take Chase Young. As is often the case with Hog’s Haven, the debate went back and forth, and although no clear consensus remained reached.
There was much good on both sides. I want to take a slightly different perspective on the discussion and understand my agreement on the points raised by both sides. It comes down to a rating (a player’s performance).
The statistical approach uses a lot of historical data to identify trends and assign probabilities based on what happened in many past cases. A concrete system takes a particular topic and predicts what might happen based on a careful evaluation of that one case.
To give a medical example, statistical studies can inform doctors that a patient is at higher risk for disease-based factors such as age, diet, and lifestyle. Never (hopefully) say to a patient, “I think you have cancer.” If the statistical risk is high enough, ask questions instead and order tests that can better diagnose the presence of the disease in that particular patient. Both pieces of information are helpful, just for different purposes.
Returning to football, the statistical method for evaluating draft picks is the Trade Value Chart (TVC). There are a few charts like that, but it remains also used in some of the examples I mention, and is widely used as a yardstick for evaluating draft picks, so I’ll refer you to Jimmie Johnson’s trade value chart.
MattInBrisVegas has done an excellent series of articles (article 1, article 2, article 3) investigating how well the TVC correlates with the actual ability of players at various positions in the draft. If you haven’t read the articles, you should. They’re illuminating. For example, matt investigated several measures of player ability.
And found that the chart correlated very strongly with the statistical probability that a player taken at that spot will be “elite” (defined as CarAV > 65, see the 3rd article for the details). Matt’s analysis shows the number of elite players taken at a given draft position superimposed over the scaled TVC value of the draft pick.
The correlation is so strong that I don’t think it can be a coincidence. I suspect the TVC remained created using a similar type of analysis. In other words, we record the number of historically elite players picked at each draft position and scale it to develop the “value” generated by each draft-pick is represented. I could have used a different definition of the elite, but the result was the same. Fantasy Trade Value Chart
Scouting Process and Importance
So what exactly do NFL scouts do? There are many articles on the Bleacher Report by Greg Gabriel, who has worked as a Director of College Scouting. These articles go into great detail about how NFL teams seek out and evaluate individual player talent. Many of his statements reflect what we know about the Redskins’ front office.
Okay, this article is longer than I intended, but I hope it helps you reframe the debate about acquiring or trading Chase Young. , is not just a choice of who will be the best player, but carefully considering how much Young is better than the next best option, an assessment scouts prepare and quantify throughout the year. Fantasy Trade Value Chart
Also read: Merchant And Trade – Menu, Contact And More